1,500 cases per day.

That’s the number of Covid-19 infections we could be facing by November 7th if Ireland fails to reduce the spread of the virus now.

That’s according to Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, which will meet again today to discuss a “significant deterioration” in the coronavirus situation nationally.

A further 611 new cases of Covid-19 have been reported in the past 24-hours, 63 in Cork, with five deaths from the disease.

Speaking at a press conference at the end of the first day of Level 3 restrictions yesterday evening, Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said that the key indicators used by health experts to assess the trajectory of the virus on Sunday have declined again.

“All key indicators of the disease have deteriorated further in the three days since the last meeting of #NPHET on Sunday 4th October. #COVID19 is spreading in our community in a very worrying manner. We have to break these chains of transmission.”@CMOIreland Dr Tony Holohan

— Department of Health (@roinnslainte) October 7, 2020

“All key indicators of the disease have deteriorated further in the three days since the last meeting of NPHET on Sunday, October 4th.” he said.

“COVID-19 is spreading in our community in a very worrying manner. We have to break these chains of transmission. 80 COVID-19 cases were hospitalised in August, 206 in September and 77 so far in October.

“In August, four COVID-19 related deaths in total were reported, 34 in September and today on October 7th we report eight COVID-19 related deaths this month.”

25 people in critical care

Dr. Ronan Glynn, Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health, said that trends in case numbers and incidence are now being reflected in indicators of disease severity.

“The number of people in hospital has increased from 122 last Thursday to 156 this afternoon. There are currently 25 people in critical care compared to 20 one week ago.” he said.

Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group confirmed that case numbers and hospitalisations are growing exponentially.

“The Reproductive number is now estimated at 1.2.” he said.

“If we fail to reduce viral transmission nationwide immediately, we could see 1,100 – 1,500 cases per day and 300-450 people in hospital by November 7th.”